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Ten testable predictions for identity and AI security in 2027, from Know Your Agent rules to passkeys at 45% and EU wallet delays, each with a confidence level and a test.
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I audited 200+ tech predictions over 10 years. 87% failed for one of four reasons. Here are the four failure modes with named examples, and how to spot them in any prediction you're tempted to make.
Three calls right, three wrong, and the biggest change in media was not on the 2020 list at all. The honest scorecard, with 2026 numbers.
