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Analyst estimates of the GEO market disagree by a factor of six on the forecast and nearly seven on current size, with growth rates from 13.6% to 50.5%. The skeptics are right that these numbers are unreliable. Here is why they diverge, and what evidence actually survives scrutiny.
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Most AI search statistics have no traceable source. These 50 name the producing organisation, the period, and the method, verified September 2026.
OpenRouter was worth $1.3 billion in May. Stripe has reportedly agreed to pay more than $7 billion for it in August. The routing layer turned out to be the valuable part.
Huang published the letter with 25 signatures. A day later there were 50, including OpenAI and Google. That reversal says more than the document does.
Amodei says Anthropic never wanted a ban. His real objection is irreversibility. Days earlier, a Chinese lab shipped 2.8 trillion open parameters.
Okta and Microsoft no longer define the CIAM market alone. Five developer-first, passwordless-native, and AI-ready platforms are growing fast by solving the specific problems the incumbents leave unaddressed. Here is where each one fits in 2026.
Google's $32B pursuit of Wiz shows security market consolidating. When hyperscalers own security vendors, customers lose pricing leverage and choice.
